Assessing The Elections for US-Israel Relations

Election Analysis

Everyone else is doing it. I might as well join in! But again from a very

To slightly-alter President Kennedy’s famed aphorism “Victory has a Thousand Fathers; defeat is an orphan;” I’d suggest “Victory has a thousand fathers. Defeat has a thousand explanations.”

A slew of organizations and analysts; some somewhat-dispassionate; some with an axe to grind or a view to promote; have rushed to offer their own interpretations of who and what was responsible for Donald Trump’s win or Kamala Harris’ defeat. Specifically regarding Israel; to what degree was it the Biden Administration’s policy toward Israel and the Gaza War and Iran. (Some felt the Administration was too “permissive” towards Israel - “Genocide Joe” in the words of some “Detractors.” Others felt that the Administration was insufficiently supportive of Israel. The polls of Jewish Voting thus far seems to see 3/4 of the Jewish vote going to Harris nationwide (obviously specific states had different numbers.) To what degree did Arab-American and American Muslim voters in states such as Michigan deciding to not vote for Harris impact the vote. I haven’t yet seen all those figures.)

At the Senate and House level, regardless of party; the “Pro-Israel” perspective has of course done well - with AIPAC having played its small part in these congressional elections in the primaries and general elections. At the Presidential level; AIPAC doesn’t endorse or contribute to the campaigns. Unlike J Street which of course does.

Of at least equal-interest is what will the election result mean for Israel, the Middle East and the US-Israel relationship. It’s no secret that many Jewish “Pro-Israel hawks” favored Trump’s election - especially if the issue was Israel. And of course polls in Israel showed the majority of Israelis favoring Trump (As did allegedly, Prime Minister Netanyahu)

There is no question that in the first Trump Administration there were various major pro-Israel actions: Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital; moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem; enabling putting in one’s passport if born in Jerusalem could say born in Israel; recognizing the Golan Heights as part of Israel; the growing Abraham Accords; various actions regarding Iran including withdrawal from JCPOA; not opposing some of Israel’s settlement policies; and some actions re Antisemitism. (Assuming all these actions were pro-Israel!)

But no one really knows what will occur in a second Trump Administration - where President Trump is (presumably!) not seeking another term and so has less constraints on him regarding election needs; financial contributors and voting blocks (such as pro-Israel Christians. It’s no secret there are different views regarding US involvement in the World And the individuals who are appointed to various positions helps determine policy. Jared Kushner for one will apparently not be involved this time. Nor David Friedman as US Ambassador to Israel. When we see the first and second tier of names; we’ll have a better idea. (And of course if past is prologues, there may be a turnover in appointees!)

Even if individuals are sympathetic towards Israel and concerned about Iran; there’s also a strong US advocacy for a reduced US involvement in the World - especially military involvement. That applies to Europe. And that applies to the Middle East. And in the end no one really knows what President Trump will do or would do if there was another conflict between Israel and Gaza or Israel and Iran.

As for the undoubtedly pro-Israel Congress and especially pro-Israel Republican Congress: As we’ve seen in the past; if the President (of either party) adopts a foreign policy; his party in Congress for the most part is extremely reluctant to oppose him. And that would probably be even more the case should a Trump Administration adopt policies re Israel (or Iran) that “Friends of Israel” would normally oppose - especially if it was the policy of the President of the opposing party; it would be very interesting to see what would happen. As for what many Democrats would do; that too will be interesting -especially given that they won’t be “guided” by the actions of the Democratic President.

Stay tuned!

[Note: On election eve: I argued in favor of Voting in America -Advocating for (almost) Same Day Voting -A genuinely Non-Partisan Look at Voting]