Israel, Iran and the US
A few off-the-cuff thoughts
There are numerous different questions out there regarding the Iranian nuclear threat and what should be - or should have been - done about it. By Israel. By the United States. By the International community.
Some questions are theoretical; some historical; some analytical. And they are all reasonable subjects for discussion.
The primary, immediate question right now, is that given what Israel has already done and is continuing to do - regardless of what you think of that Israeli action: Do people want the Iranian nuclear capability to be dismantled (and can it be)? And should there be a US role in this process? It’s certainly a longstanding US (and European) position that the Iran should not be permitted to have a nuclear weapon. (Now obviously there are some people out there who don’t have that as their goal!)
Regarding reactions to the Israeli action against Iran; there are several arguments out there that can be seen on social media and beyond. Among those (and I’ve probably omitted a few - and this summary is of course painting with a broad brush.
1) It’s not America’s business if Iran does have a nuclear weapon.
2) Israel can act against Iran but do so without US involvement (which some extend to means not supplying Israel with weapons)
3) There is no Iranian nuclear threat; the Iranians weren’t developing a bomb. Or if they were, it was a long way away. Or if they were, Israel also has “the bomb, etc.
4) If there was a growing Iranian nuclear threat; that’s the fault of those who ended JCPOA.
5) There are repeated citing of the US claims at the time of the Iraq War. If the US was wrong then; they’re wrong now. And repeated assertions of how exiting JCPOA lead us to here.
6) There’s the assertion that the proper MAGA (and far left policy) is for the US to not be involved.
7) And there are course some who engage in various conspiratorial insinuations and slurs. If the US does become involved that’s due to pernicious “You know who.” There’s a use of the term “Israel First” and “Israel Firsters” as they seek to strengthen their arguments. As though it’s so clear what’s best for the United States.
8) There are of course numerous advocates out there whose World View is “Anti-Israel” (hating Israel) and for some, clearly pro-Iran.
So this past week (and before); there’s a been a lot of looking back: Both to the Iraq War and the WMD subject. And to the JCPOA of a decade ago; Prime Minister Netanyahu’s vociferous opposition to it. And then President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal. And of course difference of views over how close Iran was to obtaining a nuclear weapon (or at least being unstoppable.)
One can argue about JCPOA and the merits of the agruments (and can argue about the the consequences of the US exiting JCPOA- especially after Iran had benefited from all the cash" “payments.”) But the assertion that most Israeli security experts supported JCPOA is certainly not how I recall was the situation. Just as current Israeli policy regarding the Iranian nuclear threat is supported by many in Israel who strongly-oppose - read detest - Benjamin Netanyahu re Gaza and the hostages; re settlements; re Judicial reform etc. But on this one issuel they agree with the Government of Israel about the threat from Iran.
The fact remains that Iran has these past few year deep antipathy towards Israel; repeatedly calling for its destruction. It showed its intent through Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and directly... And a nuclear Iran: Those who assure us that “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD) would prevent any Iranian use of a nuclear weapon should they have one. Well that’s quite a “Sword of Damocles” over Israel. Over Europe. Over the United States. Especially given the ideology of the current regime in Iran.
Some of this is of course theoretical. We are where we are now. Israel has done what it's done.
The central question now is: How can the US and Israel take advantage of what has now happened - and if possible permanently remove the Iranian nuclear possibility. Not have a pause so they can rebuild and rearm. And revert to their nuclear goal. Not have token piece of paper or agreements which don't actually remove the threat.
Whatever you think of their policies or actions; Israel’s political and military leadership are not stupid - although of course they do make massive mistakes (as we sadly and vividly saw on October 7th).
Israel was obviously very- aware of the numerous potential downsides of its action against Iran. Both now and for the future. But sometimes there are only two bad choices. And that while for some World leaders and International organizations; they prefer to kick the issue down the road, not really concerned about long-term consequences.
Israel has been fighting for its survival for the past 80 years….As Jews read each year at their Passover service. ”In each generation they rise up to destroy us… “
These last few days; a number of “Critics” have rushed to use the term “Israel First” to apply to those who have advocate a different US Policy to the one they hold. I’d suggest that people should argue their case regarding Iran without getting into such slurs. It merely suggests their case is not-so-strong if they need to resort to such terms. It’s not hard for others to engage in ad-hominems.
While one might not appreciate or agree with many of the comments and insinuations out there; that they would be said, was extremely-predictable (and of course, dangerous). In some instances it’s a reiteration of certain age-old themes which has seen loyalties questioned if your views differ from theirs. Especially when Israel is involved in the discussion. Or it’s used as an excuse to explain certain policies or actions. Thus you see various “conspiracy theories” about the United States and Israel.
You omitted- the US will support but Israel will do the deed. Referring to Fordow. I’m in Tel Aviv now so this is most interesting to me.
In summary. Israel has 1/10 of 1% of the world’s population and it ceaselessly gets 25% of total foreign aid, even though it has by far the highest GDP per capita of any country receiving such charity in American basis. Israel is clearly a charitable ward of the American taxpayers.
Palestine, including Israel, has as many indigenous people as Jews, yet Israel ceaseless expands squatter settlements in Palestine with the often stated objective of achieving “Eretz Israel” (Israel within its current boundaries, plus East Jerusalem, the West Bank (or as Jews like to call it, Judea and Samaria), Gaza and the Golan Heights). If this “from the river to the sea” Eretz Israel objective is achieved, the new country cannot be a Jewish state without aggressively ethnic cleansing the indigenous population from it. Or it could seek to perpetuate its vicious system of apartheid that is now on display in the West Bank over far more people and within the new boundaries of Israel, but as we saw in South Africa that is not sustainable.
It has only been three months since the US Director of National Intelligence clearly stated in congressional testimony that there is no evidence that Iran is progressing to complete a nuclear weapon. It’s testimony can easily be accessed online. So what does Trump do as he conspires to have the United States become actively involved in yet one more feckless foreign war that promises to be on a par with the Afghanistan and in Iraq debacles? He fails to invite his DNI to the meetings, since her inconvenient truths might slow things down. Indeed, yesterday publicly stated “I don’t care what she says“. Instead, he proves his weakness by getting played by the government of a foreign country 6800 miles away since he inexplicably prefers their version of the truth to the version that is offered up by the American intelligence apparatus that he commands.
Some things you just cannot make up.